Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.033034 0.037636 0.042675 0.048608 0.055408 0.062965 0.072010
2025-01-19 0.024581 0.030495 0.037565 0.046659 0.058078 0.071980 0.090250
2025-01-26 0.021458 0.028199 0.036750 0.048437 0.064059 0.084316 0.112730
2025-02-02 0.019272 0.026544 0.036229 0.050140 0.069724 0.096483 0.136112
2025-02-09 0.017594 0.025235 0.035850 0.051768 0.075213 0.108747 0.160844
2025-02-16 0.015688 0.023316 0.034309 0.051435 0.077686 0.116791 0.180184
2025-02-23 0.014284 0.021929 0.033324 0.051708 0.080938 0.126146 0.202379
2025-03-02 0.012876 0.020359 0.031860 0.051016 0.082518 0.132944 0.221129
2025-03-09 0.012046 0.019587 0.031524 0.052021 0.086829 0.144424 0.248740
2025-03-16 0.011013 0.018375 0.030344 0.051481 0.088461 0.151551 0.269600
2025-03-23 0.010515 0.017992 0.030471 0.053127 0.093941 0.165710 0.304400
2025-03-30 0.009506 0.016636 0.028819 0.051492 0.093427 0.169203 0.319965
2025-04-06 0.008716 0.015606 0.027666 0.050681 0.094409 0.175659 0.342221
2025-04-13 0.007835 0.014333 0.025967 0.048706 0.093025 0.177583 0.355936
2025-04-20 0.007583 0.014188 0.026296 0.050560 0.099134 0.194426 0.401548
2025-04-27 0.007339 0.014031 0.026581 0.052342 0.105265 0.211927 0.450622
2025-05-04 0.007101 0.013861 0.026819 0.054045 0.111394 0.230039 0.503196
2025-05-11 0.006646 0.013223 0.026086 0.053697 0.113211 0.239344 0.537459
2025-05-18 0.006300 0.012772 0.025681 0.053982 0.116388 0.251850 0.580465
2025-05-25 0.005881 0.012134 0.024841 0.053259 0.117282 0.259428 0.612872
2025-06-01 0.005666 0.011903 0.024822 0.054309 0.122228 0.276577 0.670285
2025-06-08 0.005321 0.011365 0.024107 0.053745 0.123423 0.285231 0.707875
2025-06-15 0.005196 0.011295 0.024392 0.055466 0.130119 0.307489 0.782581